Bitcoin trades with low volatility as yesterday’s trading brought extremely quick downside movement to break support at 6400. This move was also followed by the firm test of the major pivot area at 6250.
This range has served as an important area for BTC as this marked a higher low* on the longer term scale for BTC to hold. This remains in effect until broken. One thought process that must be accounted for is the fact that what goes up must come down.
Although BTC did break down fast, there is no indication of price point seeking new lows until this level is broken and the major support at 6k is reached.
At the moment, BTC struggles to maintain any sort of meaningful retracement. After 6250 held firm by candle open/close*(body), there has been about 100 points worth of upside in the last day or so. This will need to be watched as 6400, currently acting as resistance, must be re-tested. The most bearish news thus far remains with BTC breaking below the long-term upper trend line marked in orange. This line has remained active for the entire year.
BTC now remains in a high-risk category as the downtrend is still intact on the short and mid-term. A higher low* must be achieved in order to sustain the consideration period to move back into an uptrend of some sort.
Stochastic readings continue to seek higher levels hourly, while the mid-term and larger scale remains negative. There is an opportunity to play the retrace, however, the risk here also remains high as there is no confirmation of the trend short term until a higher* low is registered.
MACD momentum looks to cross to the upside midterm, a sign that BTC may seek out the 6400 resistance test again.
BTC is currently a No Play.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is sideways – No Play unless catching retrace longs on the 15-minute scale.